Courtesy: Politico
The New York Times had a great piece today, breaking down where the wavering Senators on comprehensive climate legislation park their interests.
Citing E&E, the article assumes there are 41 “yes” votes and 29 “no” votes in the upper chamber, leaving exactly 30 to be had, of which 19 are need to reach the magical number of 60.
Most of the fence-sitters call states with significant coal interests home, something probably not good given attempts to curb greenhouse gas pollution in the bill. The leader has to be Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), who has introduced legislation to prevent the EPA from enforcing regulations itself. Obviously the senior senators from that state, Robert Byrd, is also a question mark, as well as Montana’s Max Baucus.
But others have been much more hostile. Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) disagrees with the push for a climate bill and instead prefers an energy-only approach. Sens. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) and Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) have questioned the economic costs of moving too fast and too aggressively.
And Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) has even unveiled a campaign ad touting her opposition to cap-and-trade legislation, a point not lost on Democratic leadership.
Many sit firmly in the nuclear field as well, none more than one of the leading trio, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). Graham is not a fence-sitter, but his ability to please some others that feel nuclear energy is the best way to go carbon neutral (the French plan), will prove invaluable.
My favorite of this group is Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN), listed as being on the fence. He is of course the same Senator who wants to build 100 nuclear plants in the U.S.
Eighteen of the 30 senators on E&E’s list come from states that are home to commercial nuclear industries: Arizona’s John McCain (R), Arkansas’ Lincoln and Mark Pryor (D), Florida’s George LeMieux (R), Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu (D), Massachusetts’ Scott Brown (R), Michigan’s Levin and Stabenow, Missouri’s Claire McCaskill (D), Nebraska’s Ben Nelson (D), New Hampshire’s Judd Gregg (R), Ohio’s Brown and George Voinovich (R), Pennsylvania’s Specter, Tennessee’s Lamar Alexander (R) and Bob Corker (R), Virginia’s Jim Webb (D), and Washington’s Maria Cantwell (D).
Beyond tax incentives and loan guarantees, it is Graham’s idea of a renewable energy standard that allows power sources to use nuclear capacity to reach targets that will draw many of these members.
When it comes to trade-intensive industries, one big question remains: how do we protect American business?
[Sens. Bayh, Specter, Rockefeller and Byrd], for example, took the lead last summer in writing to Obama with a pledge to oppose any climate legislation that did not come with a “border adjustment mechanism” that would allow for trade sanctions on carbon-intensive goods from developing countries that do not have strong enough climate policies.
The big worry is that business will just produce elsewhere because they won’t have to deal with any regulation. No party wants to see that happen, meaning provisions in the bill preventing it are very likely.
But save the biggest, most financially influential industry for last: oil and gas. Home of 13 Senators according the story, the range of items on the wish list of this group is large, if not diverse. Sarah Palin hit it on the head: “Drill, baby, drill.”
Just last week, Sen. Lisa Murkowski said her vote was contingent on the opening of ANWR to drilling, something highly unlikely, but sure to be debated again, just to continue beating a dead horse.
Sen. Mary Landrieu, of Louisiana, is sure to call for the drills as well, but in the Gulf of Mexico, where she already 8.3 million acres of untapped water.
There is a difficult balance when drilling is involved, as it is mostly included to gain votes, but can cost votes if the actually activity is off the coast of a different state where a reliable “yes” vote lives.
While there will be also be issues about how to apply a carbon cap, something which has been a major part of the conversation recently, these have been the main issues since the debate began. The idea of regulating different industries differently will surely continue to be discussed.
With 30 votes sitting out there and 19 needed, much work clearly still needs to be done. By all accounts, the trio of Kerry, Lieberman and Graham are not only working tirelessly, but have enlisted the help of several other members. Lieberman has said he is aiming to have something out before Easter break, which is less than three weeks away.
